SU09(26) Contract Award for Data Collection for Survey-based Study of the 2026 Senedd Election

Contract Award Notice to commence 8-working day standstill period before entering into a contract with Ipsos (market research) Limited to deliver the Data Collection requirements for the Survey-based Study of the 2026 Senedd Election. The Senedd election is scheduled to take place by May 7th, 2026.

In order to study this election, the project academic leadership team are leading a survey-based research project seeking to capture and disseminate representative data on Welsh voters’ attitudes, behaviours, and socio-demographic attributes (including an enhanced focus on the themes of ‘place, power, and political engagement’). The wider project toward which this work will contribute is entitled ‘The 2026 Welsh Election Study: Place, Power, and Political Engagement’ As a result of this procurement process, Swansea University wish to award this contract to Ipsos (market research) Limited to undertake a series of representative sample survey waves of the Welsh electorate, encompassing one pre-campaign wave, one in-campaign wave, and one post-campaign wave.

The overarching aim of the WES 2026 Survey is to implement a high-quality data collection strategy to capture voters’ attitudes and behaviours pre-election, during the campaign, and after the Senedd election in May 2026, resulting in a cutting-edge public opinion data resource that is, as far as possible, robust, representative, and generalisable for inference about the Welsh electorate. The research team has identified push-to-web as the representative sampling methodology that they will deploy.

A clear, granular account is required of how this approach will be rolled out to deliver 3 x representative samples across the project timetable. A minimum n of 2,000 is stipulated for each survey wave, but the approach is one that prioritises data quality over quantity.

As such, an emphasis is sought on the survey frame coverage, on the randomisation of selection, and on the protocols to secure a 20% plus response rate, as well as the generation of survey data weights. In addition and as stipulated above, an approach is also sought to the provision of anonymized respondent location data using the ONS Output Areas system.

The project is funded by UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI) Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). WES 2026 is part of a UK-wide set of national election studies, and its work supports the delivery of ESRC’s data infrastructure strategy. The total maximum budget for this work was £368,000.00 (inclusive of VAT, all Welsh language translation & all expenses) This tender was conducted electronically via etenderwales BravoSolution, in project 31576 and itt 119846 and the contract will run from November 2025 to November 2026.