Population and Household projection modelling for the Replacement Eryri Local Development Plan

Eryri National Park Authority (ENPA) is preparing its replacement Local Development Plan 3 (LDP 3) covering the 15 year period 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2041. In line with the guidance in paragraph 4.2.7 of Planning Policy Wales the Authority wish to commission work to undertake modelling, based on robust evidence to identify alternative growth options to be considered within the emerging replacement Eryri Local Development Plan.

The Authority seeks to appoint a suitably qualified consultant to provide robust analysis of a range of growth scenarios, based on the awaited 2022 based Welsh Government Population and Household Projections for the National Park (due to be released early 2026). The key objective is to produce a comprehensive analytical report that: 1.

Interprets the 2022 based Welsh Government population and household projections for the Eryri National Park Authority area. 2. Identifies and assesses a range of growth scenarios over the LDP 3 period. 3.

Analyses demographic change, including an ageing population and outmigration of younger people 4. Considers employment forecasts alongside household changes. 5. Produces projection variants to support LDP 3 strategy and policy decisions.