CR20109 - Future UK Offshore Wind Deployment Scenarios

**THIS IS NOT A CALL FOR COMPETITION** This was awarded under Crown Commercial Services Research Marketplace Dynamic Purchasing System RM6018. Context: In 2019, the UK committed to a legally binding target to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.

Offshore wind will be a key renewable electricity generating technology in delivering this target. The Committee on Climate Change set out in their 2019 net zero report a higher ambition scenario of 75GW of offshore wind capacity in operation in order to contribute to net-zero targets by 2050.

The Offshore Wind Sector Deal published in March 2019 set out an ambition of the UK deploying up to 30GW by 2030. The Government is now working with the sector to accelerate deployment.

We are seeking to appoint a consultant to undertake research to define a range of plausible spatial scenarios for offshore wind development to 2050 in UK waters, and assess the extent to which deployment levels are constrained by technical, economic, environmental and system factors. The research will examine the key drivers of costs and how these relate to increased offshore wind deployment under different scenarios, as well as the role of floating offshore wind in overcoming spatial limitations and at what cost.

There has been little research undertaken to date to map spatial deployment scenarios for offshore wind across all of UK waters, and to understand how the costs of offshore wind are expected to vary as deployment increases. At present, the evidence and modelling underpinning BEIS' electricity strategy assumes limited cost variation between different deployment levels of offshore wind.

Further, the only constraint applied is a 'build limit' which is based on what the supply chain can deliver at present. In practice we know that offshore wind needs to co-exist alongside a range of environmental, logistical, social and economic factors (e.g. radar, shipping lanes, and presence of protected species) and that moving to less technically desirable sites may have cost implications.

We are therefore looking to appoint a consultant to expand the evidence base to identify potential spatial deployment scenarios, and to understand how the different scenarios relate to technical, economic, environmental and system factors, on and offshore. Further to this, the research should also build on the expected future development of turbine technology and the potential of floating offshore wind in overcoming such limitations and at what cost.