Social Mobility Commission - Who are the long term welfare recipients and what prevents them from progressing socially and economically?

Project Description

The Social Mobility Commission (SMC) monitors progress towards improving social mobility in the UK and promotes social mobility in England. It is an independent statutory body created by an Act of Parliament.

The SMC is interested in conducting research to understand those who are long-term welfare recipients and the factors preventing them from progressing socially and economically. Our motivation stems from wanting to understand the characteristics of long-term welfare recipients, how they utilise the welfare system and the individual and systemic factors that prevent progress.

Background

The UK welfare system has evolved over time. Post-World War II, the 1942 Beveridge report and 1948 National Assistance Act, saw the initiation of a comprehensive, non-means-tested system of social security designed to act as a financial safety net. The system was intended to act as a 'trampoline' supporting people in times of need, before returning to self sufficiency. However, there are arguments that the current system prevents those at the lowest socioeconomic levels from moving upwards. The mechanisms for the welfare system affecting long-term dependency are influenced by a complex combination of systemic and individual factors and little is known about those who are long-term dependent and how to support them.

Objectives

The SMC's primary objective is to answer the research question: What prevents people who are long term recipients of welfare from progressing socially and economically? To begin to answer this question, we wish to conduct quantitative research to provide an understanding of 'long term welfare recipients'. This will include:

• Defining who is a long term welfare recipient. What is the prevalence and what are the core demographic and socio-economic factors that define this group?
• What are the flows of people into and out of long term welfare receipt? Do people get 'stuck' on welfare?
• What socio demographic characteristics and structural factors are associated with people flowing into and out of long term welfare receipt?

Through this research, SMC will gain a rich understanding of individuals who are long term welfare recipients, their characteristics, and the sociodemographic characteristics that are associated with moving into and out of dependency.

This evidence will inform a separate qualitative workstream (out of scope of this tender). Employing a systems thinking approach, the SMC will convene experts across the working and policy level for a series of workshops (e.g. incorporating work coaches, DWP officials, academics, think-tanks and charities). These sessions will map the interconnected components of the system surrounding long-term welfare use. It will build on descriptive evidence of those who are long term welfare recipients, to identify critical patterns, relationships, and feedback loops both at the individual and system level. In tandem with the quantitative research proposed in this tender, this holistic mapping will support SMC's wider aspirations to understand systemic barriers to progress and provide policy recommendations to reduce welfare dependency. (The supplier is not expected to recommend interventions or make wider policy recommendations.)

Deliverables

Deliverable 1: The supplier will provide an analysis plan for the proposed research. This will include a robust and rigorous quantitative methodology. We anticipate the method utilising existing longitudinal data such as Understanding Society or similar.

Specifically, the analysis we would like the supplier to conduct is

• To define those who are long term welfare recipients within the data. This will require development of a suitable definition, to be agreed with the SMC. For instance, identifying those of working age who state they have not been in employment in the last 12 months and are receiving means-tested benefits.
• Identify prevalence of long term welfare recipients and their wider characteristics. This will include descriptive analysis of core demographic and socio-economic factors.
• We also welcome proposals for inclusion of pen portraits to illustrate types of people who are long term welfare recipients. This may utilise methods such as cluster analysis or predicted probabilities to understand types of characteristics of long term welfare recipients.
• Flow analysis, utilising longitudinal data to understand the flows of people into and out of long term welfare receipt.
• Exploration of socio-demographic changes that are associated with people moving into or out of long term welfare receipt.

The supplier is expected to submit their own plan for ensuring the analysis utilises suitable data sources, is methodologically robust and has proportionate quality assurance processes. Deliverable date, April 30th 2026.

Deliverable 2: A comprehensive literature review of what is known about those who are long term welfare recipients, barriers to progress and effective strategies for improving the social mobility of this group. This will draw on both quantitative and qualitative insights from existing literature. We expect this to be circa 5,000 words and written to be accessible to SMC's audience (see Deliverable 4). Deliverable date, June 2026.

Deliverable 3: Longitudinal analysis. The supplier will be expected to undertake a rigorous, transparent longitudinal analysis in line with the agreed analysis plan. The supplier will work collaboratively with the SMC to ensure analysis meets the needs of the organisation and will be expected to share and present emerging findings. A slide deck of emerging findings should be provided to support our qualitative research workstream in June 2026.

Deliverable 4: A full report summarising methodology, findings, including all writing and drafting, and support with dissemination. We require the supplier to conduct all of the drafting of the report. However, SMC will have editorial input into the final SMC branded product to ensure the output meets internal standards and conveys the messaging of the research accurately. As such, suppliers should produce an initial draft and receive comments from SMC.

The audience for this report is expected to be a mix of policy-makers, social mobility researchers/academics/practitioners, and the public. Therefore, the outputs should reflect the diverse audience i.e. there should be an executive summary for policy-makers, findings should be written in non-technical language/plain English for the public and attention should be given to ensuring wide accessibility and easy interpretation of the information.

The final report should be complete by August 2026.