Projecting UK Biodiversity Indicators into the future

Project Aims The overall aim is to produce a proof-of-concept test on how UK Biodiversity Indicators can be projected into the future to help inform conservation decision-making. The test will include making projections.

These are not intended for operational use initially, but will aim to describe the steps, demonstrate potential outputs, and assess the feasibility of more routine application. The scope of the work at present is UK terrestrial biodiversity. 3.

Project Background The UK regularly publishes a range of biodiversity indicators (https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/uk-biodiversity-indicators-2...). These UK Biodiversity Indicators (UKBI) are used to track and report progress against international commitments made through the Global Biodiversity Framework.

The indicators are wide-ranging, and encompass pressures (e.g. pollution), policy and management interventions (e.g. sustainable forestry), environmental outcomes (e.g. species population trends), evidence about biodiversity, and public interest and support for conservation. Some of the UKBIs are also used/adapted by individual UK countries, and are an important tool for wider communication of how biodiversity is changing.

The analysis of current trends will continue to be essential. However, there is increasing recognition of the need for evidence about how the environment could change in future.

There are several aspects to this, including: • Understanding the likely 'Business-as-Usual' future trajectory for pressures and interventions • Understanding impacts from individual policy options and decisions • Investigating the interaction between multiple policies, and the likely net outcomes under different assumptions about implementation • Understanding possible future changes in environmental pressures and the options for management and mitigation This evidence can enable more informed discussions on the balance of policies and how investment is allocated. It can also identify risks and opportunities, and provide a communication tool to raise awareness of possible future environmental trajectories (as used in broadly similar ways e.g. in relation to climate), rather than only focusing on past trends.

Furthermore, projecting the UK Biodiversity Indicators gives a direct link with how the UK assesses progress on national and international environmental objectives. Being able to project these indicators and test responses to evolving policy priorities and wider socioeconomic changes would be a powerful tool to inform environmental decision-making.

As such, JNCC are particularly interested in flexible and re-usable approaches that combine scenarios of potential environmental changes with models that project what effect these changes have on UKBIs. Related JNCC-supported work This project will contribute to a longer-term JNCC ambition to support the development and implementation of biodiversity projections to inform conservation decision-making, through the Biodiversity Pathways project (https://jncc.gov.uk/news/biodiversity-pathways-project-la...).

The project described in this invitation to tender is a standalone piece and does not rely on any previous work 4. Project Objectives To meet the overall Project Aims (Section 2), the objectives are: 1) Agree at least one suitable scenario for projections.

This can be existing or newly produced, but must involve some change in the key drivers that affect selected UK Biodiversity Indicators (i.e. the scenario cannot be 'no change from the current position'). 2) Develop, document, and pilot a re-usable modelling approach to project selected UK Biodiversity Indicators under the scenario(s) for a 20-30 year period. We do not expect this to be suitable for using operationally without further testing, but it should be sufficiently developed to show the potential and to enable Objective 3. 3) Evaluate strengths, limitations, and transferability of the resulting methods and projections, to inform next steps in developing this approach. 5.

Project Objectives: Detailed Tasks 1) Agree at least one suitable scenario for projections We do not expect an extensive scenario development process - the main purpose of this contract is to develop and test modelling methods suitable for projecting UK Biodiversity Indicators. As such, the scenario(s) used should identify key direct drivers of changes in the selected indicators and set reasonably plausible values for these.

However, scenarios would not need to consider underlying policy or socioeconomic shifts necessary to affect the driver values in this way. Existing scenario(s) can be used if relevant.

The UK Biodiversity Indicators used must be suitable for projection for the UK and ideally for individual UK countries. We are particularly interested in the indicators listed below, and would like to include at least one indicator from Group 1 (species trends) and at least one indicator from Group 2 (pressures, habitat condition).

Note that several of these indicators include multiple components - ideally, each component would be projected though if this does not add much new information or is impractical with the time/evidence available then the focus can be narrowed. Where bidders are aware of overlap with previous or ongoing work on biodiversity projections, this relationship should be explained with a description of how proposals build on rather than duplicate other work.

GROUP 1: UK Biodiversity Indicators relating to species trends. Priority to include projections for at least one indicator from the following list Status of threatened species Conservation status of UK species of European importance Priority species abundance Trends in the relative abundance of priority species Priority species distribution Trends in distribution of UK priority species Birds of the wider countryside and at sea Trends in abundance of commoner native birds Insects of the wider countryside (butterflies) Trends in abundance of resident butterfly species Plants of the wider countryside Change in abundance of plant species in four UK broad habitat types Mammals of the wider countryside (bats) Changes in relative abundance of GB breeding bat species Status of pollinating insects Changes in the distribution of bees and hoverflies GROUP 2: UK Biodiversity Indicators of pressures and habitat condition.

Priority to include projections for at least one indicator from the following list Air pollution Area affected by acidification and area affected by excess nitrogen Invasive species Number of invasive non-native species established Changes in the extent of invasive non-native species Protected areas Changes in the extent and condition of Protected Areas Status of threatened habitats Conservation status of UK habitats of European importance 2) Develop, document, and pilot a re-usable modelling approach to project indicators under the chosen scenario(s), for a 20-30 year period There is no requirement to use a specific modelling approach. However, the methods (including code) must be clearly and transparently described in sufficient detail to enable re-use and external evaluation.

Consideration should also be given to how the approach could be generalised to other indicators (see Task 3, below). The choice of method should be justified as suitable for projecting indicators for a 20-30 year period, and ideally for individual UK countries.

Projections should be accompanied by an explanation of the approach to validating outputs, and descriptions of assumptions and uncertainties. We recognise that projections can be complex to produce, and we do not expect the methods to be suitable for using operationally without further testing.

However, the content should be sufficiently developed to show the potential and to enable Objective 3. 3) Evaluate strengths, limitations, and transferability of the resulting methods and projections, to inform next steps in developing this approach Objective evaluation of strengths and limitations of the projections is essential to inform future work. The detail of this will depend on the outcomes, but is likely to include: i) Would the methods be feasible to apply operationally, e.g. on a regular basis and/or with new scenarios or policy questions?

If yes, what is required to achieve that? ii) Could the methods be extended to other UK Biodiversity Indicators? If yes, which indicators and what would be required to achieve that? iii) What additional evidence would help improve the projections and/or enable better validation of outputs? iv) Are there additional indicators not currently within (or in-development for) the UKBI that would be informative for conservation and amenable to scenarios and modelling?

Outputs should be written into a report (see Section 7, below). See Section 13 for guidance on tender responses 7.

Outputs Any products or outputs submitted to JNCC [for publication] should adhere to JNCC's house-style and should be produced in an accessible format (see Product Specification below for more information). The expected output is a report including indicator projections, methods detail, and commentary on findings, with a limit of approximately 7,000 words.

A shorter non-technical summary will also be required (approx. 250-500 words). Additional information (e.g. code) should be included as supplementary material as needed.

Responses can propose additional or alternative outputs and formats if these would more effectively meet the project objectives. 8. Product Specification JNCC is committed to making its publicly available resources and documents accessible, in accordance with the Public Sector Bodies (Websites and Mobile Applications) (No. 2) Accessibility Regulations 2018.