Labour Market and Skills Demand Horizon Scanning and Qualitative Scenarios
Department For EducationEstimated Value
£60,000 – £80,000
Deadline
3 February 2021
Published
21 January 2021
Type
goods
Overview
The aim of this research is to scan the horizon of the labour market over the next 15-20 years to identify the drivers and emerging trends, (including EU Exit, technological advances, globalisation, an ageing population, migration, environmental change, and Covid-19) to create several possible labour market scenarios and to assess the broad implications of these scenarios for the jobs, skills, and qualifications that will be needed in adult and technical education. In the short-term, the results of this research will help to shape the Department for Education's assessment of what mix of qualifications the Department should fund to meet the demands of the future labour market.
In the longer-term it will help to inform what the Department's ambition for the future should look like. Research Questions: • What are the global drivers and key trends of the labour market?
How might these evolve over the next 15-20 years? Which of these are likely to be most important in defining the future of UK jobs and skills? • How do global and local trends interact in the UK labour market? • Given the key global and local trends, what are the different possible scenarios about how the labour market might develop over the next 15-20 years?
Additional details
What would have happened anyway? What is the impact on different sectors likely to be? • What are the implications of these scenarios for jobs, skills, and qualifications?
How might the jobs, skills, and qualifications needed now change over the short term (0-5 years) and long term (15-20 years)? To narrow the findings, it may be useful to focus on some specific sectors of high interest.
We expect that the research will involve a review of existing evidence on the future of the labour market, interviews with key experts and qualitative scenario building, including a 'business as usual' scenario and several possible labour market scenarios that have broad implications for the jobs, skills, and qualifications. We anticipate that an experienced contractor will undertake this work who is familiar with scenario development and futures methods. Additional information: Please note progression of this project is subject to Ministerial Approval
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Likely incumbents
Suppliers who won similar work from this buyer in the last 5 years.
- 1
Alma Economics
1 contract wonlatest 25 Sept 2026ends 31 Dec 2031£599,200
total awarded
- 2
National Centre for Social Research
1 contract wonlatest 9 Sept 2026ends 31 Mar 2030£14m
total awarded
- 3
Ecorys
1 contract wonlatest 7 Sept 2026ends 30 Sept 2029£5m
total awarded
- 4
Ecorys UK
1 contract wonlatest 1 Sept 2026ends 31 Mar 2029£949,787
total awarded
- 5
ipsos (Market Research) Ltd
1 contract wonlatest 18 Jun 2026ends 24 May 2029£1m
total awarded
Alma Economics is the most likely incumbent based on recency and category match. To win, bidders typically need a clearly differentiated proposition or a price advantage.
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Department for EducationKey Dates
Published
21 January 2021
Submission deadline
3 February 2021
Notice type
tenderAmendment
Source
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